While I lived in New Zealand, I became convinced of the importance of buying domestic, or even better, buying local. I was convinced that manufacturing was the key to rejuvenating our middle class. I had images in my mind of fuzzy black and white or sepia photographs of hardworking Americans, churning out American goods, bringing home American paychecks, raising happy American families. Oh, the past. What I pictured as the present, however, looked more like hapless Americans wearing blue vests and working the checkout line at Wal-Mart, bringing home paltry paychecks, and living on dog food. OK, I didn't really picture dog food. But it was bleak.
Today, on my local NPR station, there was a discussion of how to rejuvenate American manufacturing and increasing our exports. I learned so much, and I think I have found a way to solidify my dreams, my ideas.
I learned that as % of GDP, manufacturing has not gone down. What has gone down is the % of the population that works in that sector. Productivity and efficiency have increased so much that there just don't need to be that many people working in factories. (Picture someone screwing caps onto tubes of toothpaste - obsolete!)
I also heard a caller talk about Rhode Island, and how its factories, abandoned b/c of the death of the state's textile manufacturing industry, were being reappropriated and retrofitted for high-end textile manufacturing. (I'm picturing imitation sharkskin swimsuits like those worn in the last Olympics. But who knows.) Anyway, YES I shouted to myself! That is the answer. More high-end, technologically sophisticated manufacturing! Medical equipment! Electronics! Whatever else!!! Ack!
There must be more to this.
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I'm an aspiring expat because I'd love to live out my life abroad. I used to travel, and I used to write about traveling. Now I'm done with law school, done with my bar trip, and trying my best to be an adult. My life is no longer defined by juvenile law school drama, neither is it defined by the craftiness and domesticness that I want it to be defined by. Hopefully this is interesting nonetheless.
2 comments:
Jeff Wilke (a Senior VP at Amazon) gave a talk at Mudd on tuesday that was relevant to this. The topic was about the role of making "difficult" decisions in leadership, particularly making decisions for long term benefit when your performance is evaluated primarily on quarterly results. Anyway, manufacturing was an example he talked a lot about. I dont remember all the figures he put up, but basically the rate at which factories are closing in the US is much higher than that of factories being built. This bothers him, as factory work is the primary means for non-college educated americans of acheiving middle-class income levels. However, manufacturing in the US is no longer superior to that overseas, and in many cases, is surpassed by China and other countries in quality and effeciency. Regardless, though, it is currently wage levels are the dominant cost in manufacturing, hence the rapid move over seas. He did some (rough) estimates though, and thinks it will take about 35-50 years for wages to equalize globally. Once that happens, cost of transport will become a dominating factor, and manufacturing will start to shift back to the US and Europe. One of his worries, though, is that we wont be ready for the shift. After years of stagnation, there will be a severe shortage of people qualified to build or operate factories, and that may hinder the return of domestic manufacturing.
BTW, John, you burst my bubble. But it does sound like Wilke's model doesn't account for the possibility of more niche, high-end manufacturing.
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